Belarus isn’t often in the news — except for elections.
That’s when President Alexander Lukashenko and his supine parliament score unbelievable margins of victory. This usually sparks protests at home and finger-wagging from abroad. The rule since 1994 is that nothing much changes and, after a brief bout of turbulence, things again go quiet.
It’s unclear if the same scenario will repeat itself after Sunday’s presidential election — in which a preliminary vote count indicated that Lukashenko won 80 percent versus 10 percent for his opposition rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. The protests now sweeping the country are the most serious the mustachioed strongman has ever faced.
Here are some of the things to know about the country frequently called “Europe’s last dictatorship” and its leader.
Who’s in charge?
Lukashenko has been president since 1994, when the former collective farm director ran on an anti-corruption platform aimed at the post-Soviet elite. He took 80.4 percent of the vote in the runoff round in what was the country’s first (and last) free election.
Within a year, Lukashenko solidified his control of the country by rolling back early economic reform efforts and tightening the state’s grip on the economy. That’s kept unemployment low and has avoided the economic turmoil seen in Russia, Ukraine and other ex-Soviet countries.
He quickly reversed efforts to promote the Belarusian language, instead strongly backing Russian and revived the symbols used when Belarus was the Soviet Republic of Byelorussia. He also launched an on-again-off-again effort to create a single country with Russia.
He rammed through a new constitution and scrapped the old parliament for one more reliant on him.
That soured his relations with the U.S. and the EU, which have never really recovered.
Lukashenko — who is styled as бацька, or “Dad” — has been in power ever since.
How does he rule?
There’s an unspoken agreement underlying Belarusian life. If you steer clear of politics, you can live a stable life, with the ability to travel abroad, hold down a decent job, get a mortgage and buy a car.
Those who break that rule face a variety of consequences — from tax inspections to losing a job and relatives running into difficulties with education. Those who persist face arrest and exile. The most persistent — especially in the early days of the regime — disappeared.
Human rights groups have long lists of violations.
“Those who oppose [Lukashenko’s] regime through non-violent venues, including opposition candidates and human rights activists, have been systematically suppressed by means of violence, arrests, and threats,” said Amnesty International.
Lukashenko, who likes appearing in public in a military uniform, has a tight relationship with the security services and the government and economic elites. They’ve repaid him by staying loyal despite occasional protests.
The corruption in Belarus is less eye-catching than in Ukraine or Russia (it’s even less corrupt than Hungary, according to Transparency International). The country hasn’t generated a powerful class of oligarchs, basically because of the government’s control of the economy.
How does the country get along with Russia and the West?
Lukashenko has also conducted a skilful foreign policy. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s evident distaste for him, he veers between Russia and the West, playing off one side against the other in an effort to retain the freedom of maneuver needed to stay in power.
Russia supplies the country of 9.5 million with the cheap oil and gas needed to keep the inefficient economy functioning. However, that tap is occasionally shut off when Moscow wants to crank up the political pressure on Minsk. Russia has also bailed out Belarus in the past with emergency loans, as has the International Monetary Fund.
Small numbers of Russian forces are stationed in Belarus and the Belarusian military takes part in exercises with Russian troops. However, Lukashenko balked at a bid to build a big Russian airbase in the country, and Belarus is a member of NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. Lukashenko has also been careful not to condone Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
The EU imposed sanctions against Belarus, most of which were suspended in 2015.
U.S. sanctions were also loosened after Lukashenko released some political prisoners in 2015. Relations have been warmer under the Trump administration. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had a chummy visit to Minsk in February where he praised the country for its security cooperation with the U.S. and offered American oil at a time when Russian oil exports had dried up.
What happened in this year’s election?
Lukashenko likes to win. He’s won reelection six times, making him Europe’s longest-ruling non-royal leader. His lowest vote total was the 75.6 percent he won in 2001.
This year, he followed the usual pattern of frightening or arresting potential opponents. But in an unusual move, the government allowed Tikhanovskaya to register after her husband Sergei, a popular blogger, was arrested.
Despite the disdain heaped on her by Lukashenko, Tikhanovskaya’s campaign, based on a promise to free political prisoners and to hold an honest election within six months, caught fire. She held large rallies around the country and it was obvious she was gaining momentum before Sunday’s vote.
The government cracked down in the days before the election. One of Tikhanovskaya’s top allies fled to Russia, others were arrested. She went into hiding, only reappearing to cast her ballot.
Demonstrators took to the streets immediately after the voting ended Sunday night and an exit poll from a government-controlled body predicted an overwhelming Lukashenko victory.
Tikhanovskaya has since left the country for Lithuania, but the protests are continuing, making them the biggest challenge Lukashenko has ever faced.