The missile that hit Poland on Tuesday killing two people was unlikely to have been fired from Russia, U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia.
It is “unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see,” Biden said after convening an emergency meeting of global leaders at the G20. Germany, Canada, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France, the U.K. — all NATO members — took part, as well as Japan.
“We are going to figure out exactly what happened,” he said.
As details remained scarce, officials were cautious in their statements given the sky-high stakes. A Russian strike on NATO territory could trigger a military response from the U.S. and other NATO members. However, there is much more understanding over Ukraine’s effort to defend itself against Russian attacks.
The hours following the first reports brought a flurry of phone calls between world leaders and emergency meetings over how to respond.
A NATO spokesperson said Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will chair an emergency meeting of alliance ambassadors Wednesday in Brussels to discuss the incident.
Late Tuesday, Poland foreign minister said a “Russian-made” missile landed along Poland’s border with Ukraine, prompting Warsaw to boost its military readiness and consult its NATO allies.
“At 15:40, a Russian-made missile fell in the village of Przewodów … resulting in the deaths of two citizens of the Republic of Poland,” the ministry said. The Russian ambassador was summoned to explain.
Warsaw’s concerns could also be raised at a pre-scheduled virtual meeting Wednesday of defense ministers from nearly 50 countries, who form part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
Western allies remain very cautious about determining the provenance of the missile.
On Wednesday morning, U.S. officials told the Associated Press that initial findings suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian rocket during Tuesday’s salvo that hit multiple Ukrainian cities and caused massive power cuts. It was the largest Russian missile attack since the invasion began in February.
“They’ve been totally unconscionable with what they’re doing,” Biden said in Bali. “And at a moment when the world is coming together at the G-20 to urge de-escalation, Russia continues to escalate in Ukraine.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a NATO ally, did not attend the Biden-led meeting and urged deescalation on Wednesday morning. “I don’t think we should insist that this missile is launched from Russia — I think this would be an escalation,” he said.
Earlier on Wednesday, Polish President Andrzej Duda said: “We do not have conclusive evidence at this time of who launched the missile,” although he said the missile was “probably” Russian-made. He added an investigation was ongoing. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba dismissed the idea the weapons were Ukrainian as a “conspiracy theory” promoted by Russia.
A photograph from Przewodów show an impact crater near a grain silo. The missile landed around 3:40 p.m. on Tuesday, according to Polish media.
“We received a report of an explosion,” Marcin Lebiedowicz, a captain with the local fire department, told Radio Lublin. “Upon arrival, we confirm that something like this happened. Two people died on the spot. At the moment we are securing the scene.”
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said after an emergency Cabinet meeting that ended after midnight: “We have decided to raise the combat readiness of selected branches of the Polish Armed Forces, with particular emphasis on airspace monitoring.”
Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks tweeted: “My condolences to our Polish brothers in arms. Criminal Russian regime fired missiles which target not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland. Latvia fully stands with Polish friends and condemns this crime.”
The Estonian foreign ministry said: “Latest news from Poland is most concerning. We are consulting closely with Poland and other Allies. Estonia is ready to defend every inch of NATO territory. We’re in full solidarity with our close ally Poland.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said that: “Ukraine reaffirms its full solidarity with Poland and stands ready to provide any necessary support. Collective response to Russian actions must be tough and principled,” adding that any attack on Poland means Ukraine should be supplied with “modern aircraft such as F-15 and F-16, as well as air defense systems, so that we can intercept any Russian missiles.”
Margarita Simonyan, the chief of Russian propaganda outlet RT, compared the situation in Poland to that of Belgorod, a Russian city near the border with Ukraine that has seen several Ukrainian attacks. “Now Poland has its own Belgorod region. What did you want?”
The Russian military denied any attack. “The statements by Polish media and officials about the alleged landing of ‘Russian’ missiles near the village of Przewodów are a deliberate provocation to escalate the situation. There were no strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian weapons,” reported the TASS news agency.
U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, head of the Foreign Relations Committee, told POLITICO: “We’re drilling down to find out what were the circumstances of it. It’s obviously very important to understand — was it a mistake, was it an overflight, was it intentional? … Obviously if it was intentional, that has all kinds of consequences to it. It’s definitely an enlargement of the conflict.”
In a readout released after their meeting, the leaders in Bali said they “reaffirm our steadfast support for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.”
Andrew Desiderio contributed reporting from Washington, Lili Bayer contributed from Brussels.
This article has been updated.