MUNICH — Of Europe’s big military powers, France is doing the most lackluster job in sending arms and ammunition to Ukraine, according to a new calculation of international aid by Germany’s Kiel Institute.
The think tank updated its influential Ukraine Support Tracker on Friday — with data calculating financial and military help for Kyiv up to Jan. 15.
It shows that Europe is catching up to the United States — gaining speed as aid from the U.S. stalls thanks to political gridlock in Washington.
As of Jan. 15, European countries have allocated €88.7 billion compared to €66.1 billion for the U.S., according to figures published to coincide with the start of the Munich Security Conference.
In military aid, the U.S. is still ahead, at €43.2 billion, just over €2 billion more than European countries. But the help from Washington is slowing: In the first half of last year, the U.S. was giving an average of €2.8 billion a month, but in the second half of 2023 it was only €470 million a month.
But that may not be enough if Donald Trump wins reelection as U.S. president in November and leaves Europe to finance Ukraine alone. Even if that doesn’t happen, the current stalemate in the U.S. Congress is putting more pressure on European countries to boost aid.
“Europe will have to at least double its current military support efforts in case there is no further support from the United States,” said Christoph Trebesch, who leads on the think tank’s database covering military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine from allies — including EU countries and G7 members.
The Kiel Institute’s figures also show wild divergences among European countries.
France, with one of Europe’s largest military industrial complexes, trails far behind. The Insitute found that French commitments — aid given and promised — were €635 million, while Germany was €17.7 billion, second only to the U.S.
On Friday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a new €1.1 billion military support package.
Aid from other big initial donors like the U.K. and Poland has flattened off over the last year.
The problem is Paris
The Ukraine Support Tracker has become the go-to source for assessing the level of aid Western allies are providing to Ukraine, but that’s drawing the ire of French lawmakers who say it doesn’t show the full picture.
France argues that it is sending crucial systems like long-range SCALP-EG cruise missiles — notably before the U.S. even sent a handful of its own ATACMS missiles.
Trebesch conceded the data is “incomplete” because it depends on public announcements, and that countries like France and Poland are not very transparent about what they’re giving. He said it was “clear that these are really large differences either way,” adding that countries like Denmark and Estonia were sending more than 2 percent of GDP to Ukraine, while France and Italy are sending a fraction of that.
The think tank doesn’t factor in the equivalent cost of military training, intelligence sharing or access to space-based satellite services, he said, but it does canvas reports and government filings for the hardware and — as of now — checks who actually delivers on promises.
A French parliamentary calculation found that France had allocated €1.7 billion. But even if that figure is correct, “It wouldn’t change much of the bigger picture,” Trebesch said.
However the aid is calculated, the increasingly dire situation of Ukraine’s troops facing relentless attacks means Kyiv’s allies will have to give more.
“The situation is difficult due to the fact that the U.S. hasn’t made a decision on aid. This impacted the situation on the battlefield. I expect the U.S. to keep supporting Ukraine,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in Munich.
But even if America falls short, European countries are wealthy enough to continue helping Ukraine, said Trebesch.
“This is a challenge, but ultimately a question of political will,” he said. “The EU countries are among the richest in the world and so far they have spent not even 1 percent of their 2021 GDP to support Ukraine.”