WARSAW — The resounding triumph of Law and Justice party in elections last year left the other mainstream parties in Poland reeling, opening the door for a charismatic but untested economist to lead the opposition to the right-wing government’s controversial policies in its first months in power.
Ryszard Petru, a boyish 43 with a trim buzzcut, a sharp suit and a wide grin, is all over radio, TV and newspapers. He’s helping organize street protests and fighting a rearguard action in the parliament against Law and Justice, which has an absolute majority in the Polish Sejm.
His febrile activity helped his newly created Modern party soar to second place in opinion polls, displacing and discomfiting the Civic Platform, a center-right party that ruled Poland since 2007 and lost first the presidential and then parliamentary elections last year.
“Everybody is astonished. Freshness. A fantastic politician” — Civic Platform leader Grzegorz Schetyna, speaking about his opponent, Ryszard Petru.
“I turn to you as the leader of the parliamentary opposition,” Petru said in a presidential-style TV spot that had him standing in front of Polish and EU flags, an audacious statement for a man whose party has 29 seats in parliament compared to Civic Platform’s 138.
Party founder
That sort of chutzpah is par for the course with Petru, a well-regarded economist who decided to form his own party after the unexpected defeat of Bronisław Komorowski in May’s presidential election, an outcome that left the Civic Platform in shock.
“No risk, no fun,” he said from his spartan office in Poland’s parliament building. The main decoration is a flat-screen television showing a parliamentary debate where Law and Justice MPs are passing yet another piece of legislation in the face of ineffectual opposition protests.
Petru soured on Civic Platform over its timid approach to market-friendly reform. He was particularly dismayed when the previous government gutted a pension reform in 2013 to bolster public finances.
That caution was born of a strategy that Donald Tusk, a former prime minister who is now president of the European Council, referred to as the politics of “warm water in the tap” — the idea that Poles would be happy with a competent but uninspiring government.
They weren’t.
Dissatisfied with Civic Platform and dismayed by a series of embarrassing scandals, some center-right voters abandoned the party for Law and Justice (PiS). Other core Civic Platform voters moved to Petru, captivated by his energy.
The contrast between Civic Platform and Modern came into sharp relief after the elections. Accustomed to holding power, Civic Platform didn’t seem to know how to react to being in opposition. The party descended into feuding over a new leader, and in one disastrous PR effort marched out of parliament during a debate on the Constitutional Tribunal, leaving Modern MPs alone in the chamber to argue that PiS was undermining democratic standards by proposing to change the makeup of the country’s highest constitutional court.
“If Civic Platform doesn’t quickly get a grip, the defeat could in future turn into a catastrophe” — Donald Tusk
Grzegorz Schetyna, a former foreign minister who is Civic Platform’s new leader, admits walking out of parliament “was a fatal mistake.”
Civic Platform is trying to recover. A recording from a recent party meeting obtained by reporters had Schetyna promising to bring a million people onto the streets to oppose Law and Justice.
“If this tempo of conflict continues, our activity will certainly be based on the street,” he said. “We’ll bring a million people from the country if needed. We have to be ready for anything, even for hard alternatives.”
Tusk has voiced his concerns. “If [Civic Platform] doesn’t quickly get a grip, the defeat could in future turn into a catastrophe,” Tusk said in a recent interview with the Polityka weekly.
Tusk founded Civic Platform in 2001 as a breakaway from the Freedom Union, a centrist party that had governed from 1997 to 2001. Freedom Union disappeared as a political force, its energy drained by Civic Platform. Petru now has a chance of repeating the same trick.
He senses the tide has shifted in his direction.
Because the opposition, even if united, has too few votes in parliament to stop PiS, Petru is trying to galvanize the country’s middle classes to oppose Law and Justice’s rush to take over the country’s most important institutions.
A radical government
As well as adopting a new statute on the Constitutional Tribunal, the government has passed laws to take fuller control of public media, secret services and many state-owned companies. It is working on legislation to give the police more power to snoop on citizens.
“My goal is to bring about early elections. It’ll come about through the internal collapse of PiS” — Ryszard Petru
“I have the impression of chaos,” said Petru. He added that he is often blindsided by legislation announced with no warning and rammed through parliament just days after being introduced.
“These changes are mainly aimed at increasing their power. It’s the same thing other governments have done but much faster and with no gloves on,” Petru said.
Petru is now a target of both Civic Platform, which sees him as a dangerous rival — “Everybody is astonished. Freshness. A fantastic politician,” a sarcastic Schetyna grumbled about Petru in the recording — and of Jarosław Kaczyński, the Law and Justice leader who worries about Petru’s ability to mobilize government opponents.
“I’m enemy number one,” said Petru, his words rushing past each other as he explained his party’s centrist program and his strategy for ending the PiS government before racing off to another meeting.
“My goal is to bring about early elections. It’ll come about through the internal collapse of PiS. Jarosław Kaczyński is steering the prime minister and the president from the back seat — that’s unsustainable over the long term.”
Kaczyński is considered Poland’s most powerful politician, eclipsing both Beata Szydło, the prime minister, and President Andrzej Duda.
Early elections?
The only practical way for the opposition to force out PiS is if PiS decided itself to call early elections. It did so almost a decade ago, the last time it was in power. Kaczyński, then prime minister, called a snap election, which put PiS in the political desert for the next eight years.
“I have no doubt that PiS learned the lesson from 2005-2007, and there will be no early elections,” said Tusk, who led his party to victory in 2007.
PiS’s first period in power was so controversial that it ended up uniting the country’s centrist voters. There are signs that the same is starting to happen this time. Polls show that Law and Justice has lost many of the centrist voters who backed it in October’s parliamentary elections. Modern and Civic Platform combined have the support of more than 40 percent of the electorate, while PiS has 32 percent.
If it is to have any hope of success against PiS in 2019, Poland’s centrist opposition parties will have to stop fighting among themselves and unite.
But the opposition is going to have to brace itself for a long campaign against Law and Justice, said Norbert Maliszewski, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw.
If it is to have any hope of success against PiS in 2019, Poland’s centrist opposition parties will have to stop fighting among themselves and unite. And Petru is the most logical leader, said Maliszewski.
“Civic Platform has the money and organization, but the charisma and freshness is with Petru,” he said. “Joining means electoral victory — not doing so leaves PiS a chance.”