Poland’s new right-wing government faces international demands to roll back radical changes to the country’s institutions, but the odds that it will suffer any serious punishment from Brussels are close to zero.
The European Commission meets behind closed doors Wednesday to decide whether to place Poland under closer scrutiny for violating the bloc’s democratic norms — the start of a process that could lead to the suspension of EU voting rights.
But Brussels isn’t likely to issue any significant reprimands. Commission officials are downplaying suggestions that Brussels could bring Warsaw to heel for taking control over public media and passing a law that critics say reduces the powers of the country’s constitutional court.
“There are different positions but I don’t expect the Commission to pick a fight at this stage,” said an EU official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
That’s also the view of Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski. On Polish television Tuesday night, he said Prime Minister Beata Szydło spoke with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker about Wednesday’s meeting.
“This is a routine procedure,” Waszczykowski said. “This debate will not end with any decision.”
Here’s why the EU-Poland standoff won’t reach the breaking point:
1. The Hungary precedent
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Getty.
The EU has kept an eye on Hungary for years due to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s embrace of what he called “illiberal democracy.” His government has reduced the power of the courts, taken over state media, hiked taxes and imposed other costs on banks and unpopular foreign companies. And that was before Orbán infuriated his European counterparts with his hard line on migration.
Yet Hungary remains an EU member in good standing and still pulls in plenty of foreign investment.
European leaders, including European Parliament President Martin Schulz, warn of Poland’s “Putinization.” But the soft treatment of Hungary undermines the tough talk towards Poland, which has taken similar steps to Hungary.
Not only that, Orbán has made clear that Hungary will block any moves to sanction Poland, most of which require unanimity of EU member countries.
2. Poland is too big to isolate
The EU didn’t succeed in changing Hungary’s direction, and Poland is a bigger beast.
With almost four times Hungary’s population, Poland is one of the “big six” EU countries with a crucial political role in the bloc, and with economic heft to match.
Poland is also a crucial partner for NATO, especially at a time of worries about the threat from Russia.
Here, mutual interests may prevail.
Poland wants a larger NATO presence in the country, something Waszczykowski plans to push hard for ahead of a July NATO summit in Warsaw. Duda’s visit to Brussels Monday will have a strong NATO component: He is set to meet NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and General Philip Breedlove, the NATO supreme allied commander.
“Poland is particularly interested in preserving its ties with NATO and the U.S,” said Adriano Bosoni, Europe analyst with Stratfor, a think tank.
NATO also needs Poland.
In a recent interview with the Stars and Stripes newspaper, General Frank Gorenc, U.S. Air Force commander for operations in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East, warned that Russian missile systems based in the Kaliningrad enclave threaten NATO jets operating over parts of Poland and the Baltics.
Poland is one of the few alliance members to spend the required 2 percent of GDP on defense, and is a strategic linchpin in Central Europe.
That means there is no chance that the Warsaw summit will be called off, diplomats say.
3. The EU can’t actually do much
Brussels could invoke the so-called nuclear option of Article 7 of the EU treaties and remove the voting rights of a member who has gone astray. But it has never been used and few think there is any chance of it being imposed on Poland.
Otherwise, there are few other points of pressure.
Money could be a big one. EU funds have transformed Poland over the last decade, helping finance roads, sewage plants, ports and lots of other infrastructure.
The 2014-2020 EU budget allocates almost €106 billion for Poland. That money depends on countries fulfilling the requirements of particular programs. If that isn’t done, then disbursement can be halted, as has happened in the past with Italy, Romania and other countries.
But the money tap can’t be turned off for political reasons.
4. Poland is closing ranks
The new government stirred up domestic and foreign opposition with its rapid and controversial measures, but it has begun pushing back at criticism.
Szydło met Tuesday with leaders of opposition parties in Warsaw, the first time that’s happened since the new government came to power in October.
The parties went to war only a few weeks ago when Polish leaders rammed the controversial legislation through parliament over the objections of the opposition. So the sight of all political rivals sitting amicably around a table undercuts the view that the country’s democracy is under threat.
Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydło. EPA
“We agreed that Polish issues have to be resolved here in Poland,” Szydło said after the meeting. “It’s bad that these issues were transmitted to the international arena and we’ll do everything for the situation to now calm itself.”
Foreign politicians who don’t get the message to leave the new government alone are in for a bit of a shin-kicking from senior officials like Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro.
After receiving two letters from the European Commission’s first vice president, Frans Timmermans, regarding the Constitutional Tribunal and the media law, Ziobro fired back, accusing him of “unjustified accusations and unfair conclusions” and denounced the letter as “an attempt to exert pressure upon the democratically elected Parliament and Government of the sovereign Republic of Poland.”
Donald Tusk, European Council president and a former Polish prime minister, warned Tuesday that the pressure being put on Warsaw can be “counter-productive.”
“I wouldn’t like the criticism coming from the European capitals, the EU institutions, the European Commission, the European Council to be seen as an attack on Poland and Poles,” he told MEPs.
5. The government in Warsaw isn’t going anywhere
Despite protests by thousands of opponents and and strong international disapproval, the government shows no sign of budging.
“No pressure and hollering, no words … will turn us from this path,” Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of Law and Justice and by most accounts the country’s most powerful politician, told supporters on Sunday. “We will continue moving forward.”
There’s a good reason for that. The party has an outright majority in both the upper and lower houses of parliament, the first time any grouping has managed that since 1989. Kaczyński also learned a bitter lesson in 2007, when he called an early election after two years of running a coalition government and then lost. This is a government that will remain in power until 2019.
That means that Poland’s partners are going to have to make the best of the new government in Warsaw, as it’s a long-term partner.
“We have to have friendly and good relations with Poland,” Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said recently. “Poland is an important and a full member of the EU. We are at the beginning of the procedure. Now we are in discussion with Poland and I don’t want to speculate about further consequences. I don’t think we will come to that point.”
Maïa De La Baume and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this article