The European Commission revived its long-running row with Poland’s right-wing government Wednesday, threatening to move forward with a legal procedure unless “significant improvements” are made by Monday to resolve the dispute over the country’s top constitutional court.
The Commission in January launched an unprecedented probe into whether the Law and Justice party (PiS) government broke the bloc’s democratic rules in its confrontation with the country’s Constitutional Tribunal.
Brussels has three main concerns: that three judges elected by the previous parliament haven’t been sworn in by President Andrzej Duda; that the government hasn’t obeyed the Constitutional Tribunal’s verdict that found legal changes to the way the tribunal functions were unconstitutional; and whether the tribunal is still able to rule effectively on new legislation.
The issue was taken up at the weekly meeting of all 28 commissioners, where Frans Timmermans, the Commission’s first vice president and its point-man for Poland, presented the state of play in talks with Warsaw.
The commissioners authorized him to adopt an opinion on Poland by Monday “unless significant progress is made by the Polish authorities to resolve the concerns expressed by the European Commission before that date.”
Looking for an exit
Despite months of talks with Warsaw, the Commission sees only “some limited openness” towards a solution by the Polish government, an EU source familiar with the issue told POLITICO. The hope is that “the adoption of the opinion can help concentrate minds” in Warsaw, the source said.
The revival of the Commission’s activity on Poland did provoke a flurry of response in the Polish capital.
The problem for the government is that there is no obvious face-saving way out of the constitutional crisis.
Konrad Szymański, the country’s European affairs minister, told reporters Poland “needs much more time” to resolve the crisis around the tribunal.
The problem for the government is that there is no obvious face-saving way out of the constitutional crisis.
Jarosław Kaczyński, PiS’s leader and Poland’s most powerful politician, held a meeting earlier this week looking for a solution to the stand-off. Larger opposition parties boycotted the meeting.
Kaczyński said his party was ready for a “far-reaching compromise.” But he insisted that “we will not begin these talks by capitulating” by heeding demands to publish the Constitutional Tribunal’s March verdict on the changes to the way it functions.
The government has refused to publish the verdict in the official gazette, normally the final step in making a tribunal’s decision binding. That step is being demanded both by the Commission and by opposition parties.
Kaczyński instead called for changes to the constitution, although his party doesn’t have a constitutional majority in the parliament. Other parties have shown no willingness to go along with such a project.
The stand-off is imposing rising political and economic costs on the government and on the country.
The fractious and generally ineffective opposition has united around the issue, and tens of thousands of government opponents have taken to the streets in regular protests.
Bill Clinton, the former U.S. president, pointed to Poland and Hungary in a recent speech as examples of countries moving away from democratic standards and wanting “Putin-like” leadership.
Law and Justice is still easily the most popular party in the country, but a new poll finds support for the government eroding. The survey by the CBOS organization found 32 percent of respondents backed the government, down by 6 percentage points from a month earlier.
Poland’s relations with its closest allies have also frayed over the stand-off. Bill Clinton, the former U.S. president, pointed to Poland and Hungary in a recent speech as examples of countries moving away from democratic standards and wanting “Putin-like” leadership.
That provoked a furious response from Poland, with Kaczyński suggesting Clinton seek medical attention.
The Warsaw Stock Exchange’s WIG20 blue chip index has shed 27 percent of its value over the last year, and Bloomberg calculated that the Polish stock market has seen $50 billion in market capitalization wiped out over that period.
Poland has been downgraded by Standard & Poor’s, had its rating perspective changed from stable to negative by Moody’s, and Fitch issued a note on Wednesday worrying about the government’s trajectory.
The agency noted the “more confrontational governing style since the 2015 election,” saying that protests over the Constitutional Tribunal and growing political polarization “could fuel political instability.”
Next steps
In his presentation to the other commissioners, Timmermans reminded them of the rule of law procedure launched against Poland.
If he adopts the opinion on Monday, it will be kept confidential and sent to the Polish government, which then has two weeks to respond.
If the Commission doesn’t find that answer satisfactory, it can issue a “rule of law recommendation” identifying the problem and giving the member country a fixed amount of time to resolve it.
The Commission then monitors the member’s follow-up. If that still doesn’t work, the Commission, the European Parliament or 10 member countries could launch an “Article 7 procedure,” which first issues a formal warning and then could impose sanctions and suspend a country’s EU voting rights.
That step has never happened, and it would need the unanimous backing of all countries except the member state in question. Hungary, also the subject of EU concern, has said it would block any such action against its Polish ally.
Brussels wants to signal to Poland to follow its rules, but is also worried about souring ties with the EU’s sixth-largest country.