Central Europe sees Trump as a kindred spirit

WARSAW — Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the U.S. presidential election proved to the nationalist and populist governments of Central Europe that they are out in front of a global political wave.

But while cheering Trump’s win, there is concern — especially in Poland — that the unpredictable businessman may end up cutting a deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin that would leave the region at Moscow’s mercy.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbàn is a case in point.

During the American election, Orbán praised Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric and anti-immigration statements and warned that Hillary Clinton was “deadly.”

“We are living in the days where what we call liberal non-democracy — in which we lived for the past 20 years — ends, and we can return to real democracy,” Orbán said at a conference held days after the U.S. election.

Brothers from another mother

At home, Orbàn has attacked non-governmental organizations, rewritten the constitution to strengthen his Fidesz party’s hold on power and led the way in opposing Muslim migrants, who he sees as undermining Europe’s Christian traditions.

Miloš Zeman, the Czech president, espouses a similar line to Orbàn — although his distaste for migrants and enthusiasm for Russia isn’t shared by the more mainstream government of Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka.

“I agree with his views on migration and the fight against Islamic terrorism” — Miloš Zeman

Zeman, along with Orbàn, openly supported Trump. “I agree with his views on migration and the fight against Islamic terrorism,” he said after the vote, adding that he would be very keen for Trump’s first wife, Ivana, a native Czech, to become U.S. ambassador to Prague.

Trump was also praised by the Czech Republic’s own billionaire politician, Finance Minister Andrej Babiš (thought to be eyeing the prime minister’s job in 2017), who said that Trump’s policies might help end the EU’s migration crisis — although he did express hope that Trump would “respect the NATO alliance.”

In Warsaw, there is a natural affinity for Trump as Poles have traditionally been ideologically closer to Republicans than Democrats — in part because of the folk memory of Ronald Reagan’s anti-communism and support for the Solidarity labor union in the early 1980s.

Many Poles also soured on U.S. President Barack Obama after his 2009 decision to scrap plans to build a missile defense system that would in part be based in Poland. That came as part of the Obama administration’s effort to “reset” relations with Russia.

The current government also felt humiliated during July’s NATO summit in Warsaw when Obama lectured President Andrzej Duda on his “concerns” about the Polish government’s efforts to undermine the country’s top constitutional court.

“A Trump administration won’t be bothering about the rule of law and media freedom” — Marcin Zaborowski

With Trump in the White House, Poland likely won’t have to suffer any such tongue-lashings.

“Warsaw will be left to its own devices,” said Marcin Zaborowski, executive vice president of the Center for European Policy Analysis, a think tank. “A Trump administration won’t be bothering about the rule of law and media freedom.”

Worries about the Russian bear

But the rejoicing in Moscow at Trump’s victory — and Trump’s seeming enthusiasm for Putin — have also raised concern in Warsaw. And Trump’s comments seeming to question NATO’s security guarantees and condoning the Russian annexation of Crimea only add to the unease.

Poland, unlike Hungary and the Czech Republic, shares a border with Russia, and Warsaw is keen on maintaining sanctions against Russia — a policy Orbán and Zeman have been trying to undermine.

While it awaits more clarity on Trump’s foreign policy in Europe, Poland’s government can try to console itself with a Trump campaign speech made to the Polish community in Chicago in which he heralded the friendship between Poland and the U.S.

“We’re committed to a strong Poland and a strong Eastern Europe as a bulwark for security and liberty,” Trump said.